14059 Harvey Lane - Riverside, CA  92503-7430    Phone: 951.522.6452

 

Home Page     Website Guide    Budgeting    Data Analysis    Printing & Graphics
Questions   Mailing Support   Website Services   Contact Us


In any campaign, there are two key questions regarding the voters:

  • Who is going to vote?

  • Who is likely to vote for a particular candidate or issue?

The Campaign Connection voter data module seeks to arm your campaign with the information that will help answer these key questions and assist in the development of a campaign strategy.

We will take your voter population and perform an extensive analysis that focuses upon:

  • The age profile of all registered voters.

  • The voter registration trends in growth and party affiliation.

  • The voting preference (voting at the polls or absentee).

We have included a sample of a city council voter data analysis to provide you some perspective regarding the analysis and why it is an integral part in developing a campaign strategy.

Party & Gender Overview

Below you will see a table of the registered voters where gender of the voter is identified. Of the 29,200 registered voters in the database, 29,149 have a gender tag. The voters are also categorized with respect to party affiliation:

D = Democrat | R = Republican | O = Other | X = Declined to State.

Gender D R O X Voter Total
F

6145

7511

531

1818

16005

M

4092

6804

545

1703

13144

Party Total

10237

14315

1076

3521

29149

There are more females than males registered to vote. This gender distribution is more prominent among Democrats than Republicans while all other voter party affiliations are close to gender parity.

There are more Republicans than Democrats registered to vote. Some significance relative to conservative and liberal views can be attributed to party affiliation but should not be assumed.

Assessing Community Growth

The registered voter population offers an effective method to get a thumbnail of growth within the community. The chart shown below will provide some perspective regarding growth within the city.

The chart graphically represents the new voters from November to November for the year spans indicated. The chart demonstrates that there is a persistent trend toward an increase in registered voters.  Most notable is the increase in the 1999-2000 year; however, since this was a presidential election year and since there was a concerted voter registration effort on the part of both major parties, this number must be adjusted as an indicator of community growth by using the other year’s numbers as normative (the average is about 2000 new voters each year).

Likely Voters Profile

An analysis of voter history was done to determine those registered voters who are most likely to vote in this election. Below, you will see a gender/party table; however, this table only shows the likely voters.

Gender D R O X Voter Total
F

2396

3506

106

371

6379

M

1651

3248

100

373

5372

Party Totals

4047

6754

206

744

11751

Of the 29,149 voters with gender tags, only 11,751 (about 40%) demonstrate a persistent pattern of regular participation. It is significant to note that Republican voters outnumber Democratic voters by approximately 2,700 voters. Also, the low number of other and unknown party voters diminishes their ability to impact an election outcome.

Voter Age Profile

Not all voters provided their age. Of the 29,149 voters with gender tags, only 28,181 provided their age. This is a large enough number of registered voters to create a meaningful age profile of the voter population. Below you will see a graph of the city voter population.

It can be seen from this graph that there are two age bumps in the voter population. The first age bump appears in the 21 to 27 year age group. The second age bump ranges from 37 to 62 years. Although interesting, the age profile takes on significance only when it is applied to the likely voter population. The likely voter age profile is shown below.

It can be seen from this likely voter age profile that the voters under the age of 37 do not represent a significant voter presence. The age bump from ages 37 to 79 represent the significant voter presence. It should also be noted that voters over the age of 79 represent an important and persistent voting block.

Certainly, any message to the voters, whether embodied in a brochure or a campaign mailer, should be formulated to appeal to the prominent voter age groups.

Absentee vs. Poll Voting

Whether a voter votes at the polls or by absentee is an important consideration when determining campaign strategies. Absentee voters tend to cast their ballots in early-to mid-October and should be outreached prior to that time. Below you will see a gender/party table of those likely voters that persistently vote absentee.

Gender D R O X Voter Total
F

1043

1737

46

152

2978

M

632

1586

44

126

2388

Party Totals

1675

3323

90

278

5366

There are 5,366 likely voters that are likely to vote absentee in this election. Almost twice as many Republicans as Democrats are likely to vote absentee. An early outreach to these voters should be undertaken to capture their support. This outreach could be a brochure mailing, a specific mail piece addressing their absentee vote, a walking visit or some combination thereof. Failure to positively influence these voters in your favor could impact your election success. It is significant to note that absentee voters represent almost 46% of the 11,751 likely voters.

To further define these absentee voters, the table below shows the likely absentee voters who are over the age of 55.

Gender D R O X Voter Total
F

530

906

20

74

1530

M

344

845

13

57

1259

Party Totals

874

1751

33

131

2789

Of the 5,366 likely absentee voters, 2,789 (almost 52%) are over the age of 55. these absentee voters should have a message crafted to secure their support in the early October time frame.

Poll Voters

The table shown below represents the likely voters that persistently vote at the polls.

Gender D R O X Voter Total
F

1353

1769

60

219

3401

M

1019

1662

56

247

2984

Party Totals

2372

3431

116

466

6385

As with the absentee voters there are more Republicans than Democrats voting at the polls. This group of voters should be outreached by literature or by precinct walks in an attempt to secure their support at the polls. The table below shows likely poll voters that are over the age of 55.

Gender D R O X Voter Total
F

533

650

10

65

1258

M

437

676

20

85

1218

Party Totals

970

1326

30

150

2476

It is significant to note that these over 55 likely poll voters are almost 39% of the all likely poll voters. Once again, this age category represents a significant voter group and a specific outreach directed toward them is strongly indicated.

Summary

This analysis has presented a profile of voters for a 2002 City Council Election. The counts shown in the tables represent individual voters. For the purpose of precinct walks or the generation of mail lists, voters will be aggregated into households. As a general rule of thumb, when grouping into households individual voter counts will decrease by approximately 30%.

It is recognized that after review of this database analysis, additional voter profiles may be needed to support campaign strategies.

Given the contested nature of this city council election, an aggressive campaign strategy is recommended that includes:

  1. Precinct walks to likely Republican absentees over 55 years of age starting at the close of candidate filing and ending on October 7th.

  2. Two mail pieces to all likely absentee voters to hit on October 1st and again October 15th.

  3. Precinct walks to likely Republican poll voters starting on October 7th and ending on election day.

  4. Two mail pieces to all likely poll voters to hit on October 25th and on November 4th.

This voter analysis serves as an information baseline to assist the campaign manager in the development of strategies to reach out to the voters. We recognize that each voter population will have additional unique considerations. We will work with your campaign to address these unique needs by providing additional voter profile development.


Home Page | Website Guide | Budgeting | Data Analysis | Printing & Graphics
Questions | Mailing Support | Website Services | Contact Us